Tuesday, September 30, 2014

College Football Week 6 Picks

4-1 vs the spread last week, 15-8 for the year.  Not much of interest happened on the football field.  Florida State looked vulnerable again, their defense doesn't look ready to handle a Playoff team.  South Carolina eliminated itself from the SEC and Playoff pictures with a pathetic late game collapse against Missouri, so the SEC East looks like a two team race between Missouri and Georgia.  On paper, Georgia is by far the better team, with Superman running back Todd Gurley, but Missouri, with the vastly underrated Gary Pinkel, has the coaching edge.  Gurley saved Georgia from an embarrassing loss to Tennessee, but the Bulldog's Clean Shirt defense still shows no sign of improvement.  Brett Hundley returned and UCLA put 62 points on the board in a win over a decent Arizona State team, but the Bruin defense gave up over 600 yards--they still look too shaky to challenge Oregon in the Pac-12.  Dopey-looking Brady Hoke dug an even deeper hole for himself, not only by losing badly to a clodhopper Minnesota team, but then denying knowledge his quarterback Shane Morris was injured.  Morris was on queer street after taking a 4th quarter cheap shot, and his spaghetti legs were obvious to fans in row 99, but Hoke claimed while standing on the sidelines just a few yards away, he didn't see Morris wobbling like Duk Koo Kim against Ray Mancini:
Hoke is out anyway, but Morris-gate makes him look not only like a bad coach, but an irresponsible one, as well. 

Six weeks into the season, we finally get a nice slate of games, with two big SEC battles down in Mississippi. . .

Arizona +22.5 at Oregon: Rich Rodriguez invented the offense Oregon runs, and in last year's game he showed the Ducks he's still the master, pulling off a huge 42-16 upset.  But the same problem that dogged Rodriguez in Michigan, a lousy defense, has followed him to Arizona, which is why his high-powered offense is still getting 22.5 points.  This should be a wild, back-and-forth, high scoring game, like most of Rodriguez' games at Michigan and Arizona, including last week's amazing comeback against Cal.  Arizona was trailing 31-13 in the 4th quarter, gave up two more touchdowns, but still ending up winning on a last play Hail Mary, 49-45.  Good for RichRod, who got a shitty deal at Michigan, and must now privately be enjoying the Brady Hoke train wreck.  It's tempting to take Arizona and the points, but their defense is so bad, I could see Arizona scoring 40 points and still not covering, losing 63-40.  Oregon

Texas A&M -1 at Mississippi State: A&M had trouble stopping Arkansas' run game last week, barely squeaking by in overtime, now they face another tough run team that has a far better passing attack than the Razorbacks.  This is probably the biggest game in Starkville since the weird Jackie Sherrill era.  The Bulldogs have had two weeks to prepare for this game--no excuses for this veteran team going against Wonder Coach Kevin Sumlin's rookie squad.  If Mississippi State wants to make a mark in the SEC, now's the time.  Mississippi State.

Alabama -6.5 at Mississippi: Hard to believe, but Mississippi has the better defense.  Lane Kiffen's new-look Alabama offense is pass happy, and I have to wonder if that's in Alabama's best interests, long term.  Tough game to call, Mississippi's roster is dotted with NFL talent, but their quarterback gives up the ball too much.  Alabama.

Oklahoma -4.5 at Texas Christian: Gary Patterson had a gaudy 47-5 record in the four years prior to TCU joining the Big 12, but while trying to be the Little Engine That Could, his team is only 6-12 in league games in their first two years in a Big Boy conference.  Last year they lost a ton of close games, including a 20-17 defeat in Norman.  Are they ready to start winning some of these games?  Hard to tell, they really haven't played anybody yet this season. Oklahoma was a little underwhelming last week, giving up over 500 yards in a 45-33 win over West Virginia.  Texas Christian

Baylor -15.5 at Texas: Charlie Strong keeps suspending players, and it *paid off* last week in a *big* 23-0 win over Kansas.  Oh.  That's right.  Kansas sucks.  Ha.  Losing to Charlie Strong was the last straw for the KU AD, who fired fat ass Charlie Weiss after that shitty game.  Maybe Kansas will finally hire a coach who doesn't weigh at least 400 pounds. I'll be shocked if Charlie *the right way* Strong can keep this game close.  Baylor.

Stanford at Notre Dame EVEN:  Stanford has the best defense in college football. . .but their offense sucks.  Notre Dame can win this game if they can find a way to scrape together 17 points.  Most of the non-Catholic nation will be pulling for Stanford, otherwise we'll start hearing talk about Notre Dame making a Playoff run.  Notre Dame.

Wisconsin -9.5 at Northwestern: After looking horrible the first two weeks of the season, Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats have turned it around, especially last week's surprising ass-kicking of Penn State and the Nittany Lions over-rated QB, Christian Hackenberg.  But now Northwestern has try to stop Wisconsin's run game.  Back to looking horrible for NU.  Wisconsin.

LSU +8 at Auburn: LSU has been helpless against Wisconsin's and Mississippi State's run game, and now they have to face Auburn.  After this loss, the Les Miles-has-seen-his-best-days whispers will grow louder in Baton Rouge. . .and this time around in the Michigan coaching carousel, they will be wishing he would go back to Ann Arbor.  Auburn.

Nebraska +8 at Michigan State: Ha!  Can you believe it?  A Big Game in the Big Ten!  The winner of this game will start begging to be taken seriously for the Playoffs.  Florida State and the Big 12 winner will probably be undefeated, and one Playoff is reserved in perpetuity for the SEC.  That leaves the last spot for Notre Dame or the Pac-12 or Big 10 winner.  If Oregon manages to go undefeated, the Big 10 has no chance.  It would be best for the sorry Big 10 if Nebraska won this game, they'd have a shot at an undefeated season, and could nab a Playoff spot if Oregon loses a game.  But can the Cornhuskers actually cornhole the Spartans?  They gave away last year's game to MSU with 5 turnovers, and now have to play in East Lansing.  Nebraska has their run game in high gear, as a team they are averaging 6.9 yards per carry.  But Bo Pelini has never won a big game or conference championship at Nebraska.  It's  now or never for Pelini.  Nebraska.  

11 comments:

  1. The Hoke stuff is going national. His comment about only being able to speak for himself echoes what the "men" of football leadership do when witness to wrongs they could have righted but, like cowards, did not: Deny, push off responsibility, and pretty much say, "that's above my pay-grade, guys."

    It's like Roger Goddell saying, after seeing the clear-cut evidence, that he could not assess the impact of impacts in the NFL on the brains of players. It's like Joe Paterno saying he had no idea his former D coach was a bit too comfy with the boys he was always playing grab-ass with. It's the Big-Tobacco saying under oath that there was no evidence smoking cigs was bad for health.

    In other words, the leadership thing to do is talk, walk, and act like a lawyer.

    Hoke may as well have pleaded the fifth. At least our understanding as people is those who plead the fifth are guilty as sin, dispensing of the pretense of not being aware your QB was knocked silly.

    Coach can see that a player's uniform isn't tucked in, can check for any illegal messages on the eye-black, but he can't see his QB, the center of his offense, is fucked up?

    I've got another one for Hoke to try next time MI loses one: The dog ate my play-book.

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  2. This isn't the first time Hoke's been caught lying. He told a shit load of lies while covering up a rape case for a KICKER! Not a QB or a stud lineman, but a fucking KICKER!

    Hoke said this in his press conference:

    "When your integrity and character is attacked, I think that's really unwarranted."

    Ha ha ha. . .this from a guy who covered up a rape.

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  3. I looked at Hoke on Wikipedia and seems to remember his salary being in the millions.

    Hell, they should try letting you coach for one month at a bargain $20 thousand. It couldn't be worse and it would save money.

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  4. Biggest shocker of the season, Arizona beating Oregon again. This time they beat them straight up on Oregon's home field, with a freshman QB holding his own against a senior Heisman contender. That one throws the Playoff situation wide open, makes the MSU-Nebraska game playoff relevant.

    That Oregon coach is in danger of becoming the Bo Pelini of the Pac-12.

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  5. Your team Mississippi State is doing its thing.

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  6. That offense is humming. . .unlike Mississippi's, which looks pretty feeble. And Wisconsin's. . .their QBs are worse than LSU's.

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  7. I quit watching the Miss-Ala game because it was such a snoozer, and now it's tied up. . .

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  8. Damn. . .Mississippi did it. Oklahoma about to bite it, too. . .The Playoffs are wide open now. . .

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  9. The Ole Miss game was great. Miss earned it. The officials made some bad calls in Bama's favor. Wonder if a dead hooker will be found in Tuscaloosa tonight. Saban looks pissed.

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  10. Do you think the Les Miles/Nick Saban era of the SEC is over? I had a feeling when Saban brought in Kiffen we'd see a slow-acting poison.

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  11. I'm totally with you on the Kiffen hire. I lost a ton of respect for Saban with that shitty hire. Kiffen is a cancer that can't be treated. We've seen it everywhere he's been - to cure the team, Kiffen has to be cut out. Kiffen is an existential threat to the Saban legacy. The question is whether Saban is too egotistical to admit he was wrong with the hire and cure the problem sooner rather than later.

    I see Miles as marking time at LSU until he's hired by Michigan. He's been at LSU for a while so it seems like a long time to mark time but the situation has never clearly presented itself. Another loss at LSU in the context of a Michigan team in disarray and the opportunity will become impossible to resist by both parties.

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