College Football Week 7 Picks

6-3 vs the spread last week, 21-11 for the year.  Worst pick of the week: Oregon over Arizona.  I vastly over-rated the Ducks, based on their win over Michigan State.  I discounted the flaws that Washington State exposed in their game a couple weeks ago.  And I vastly under-rated RichRod and Arizona. The Pac-12 is now wide open, and in danger of losing their Playoff spot to Michigan State.  Arizona is the only unbeaten in the Pac-12, but as much as I'd love to see RichRod spread his way into the Playoffs, I don't see how he can hide that defense for seven more games.  The Wildcats are going to stumble a couple times.  Best pick of the week: Notre Dame over Stanford.  I said: Stanford has the best defense in college football. . .but their offense sucks.  Notre Dame can win this game if they can find a way to scrape together 17 points.  Final Score: 17-14.  Pick I wish I had back: Alabama over Mississippi.  I said: Tough game to call, Mississippi's roster is dotted with NFL talent, but their quarterback gives up the ball too much.  Alabama.  Of course, Bo Wallace didn't turn the ball over once, and led a nice 4th quarter come back for the Rebels.  Good for Mississippi. . .and good for Mississippi State also, the SEC has some new blood at the top.  It appears the Les Miles/Nick Saban SEC era may be ending. . .for sure in LSU.  It's interesting to me how these programs suddenly fade. LSU is still a recruiting powerhouse, but their defense, which used to be so intimidating, now gets run all over by good teams.  They still have bluechip recruits, but why can't they stop the run, anymore?  What happened?  Oklahoma's loss gives Baylor the Big 12's Playoff spot.  I'd now predict the Playoffs like this:

#1 Florida State vs #4 Michigan State
#2 Baylor vs #3 Georgia  

I'm still sticking with my preseason pick of Georgia over Auburn in the SEC title game, even though the Dawgs Clean Shirt defense makes me nervous as a cat.

Week 7 features a card full of SEC heavyweight battles:

Georgia -3 at Missouri: This should be the SEC East title game. . .should be, unless Florida suddenly finds an offense.  Anyway, Georgia is always a risky pick, with their anorexia nervosa defense, but they have Todd Gurley, Player of the Year, going against a Missouri run defense that couldn't stop mediocre tailbacks from Toledo, Indiana or South Carolina.  Georgia should run through Missouri, though with that thin defense, they probably won't pull away until late in the game.  Georgia.

Auburn -3 at Mississippi State: They got LSU two weeks ago, Texas A&M last week, can Mississippi State make it three huge SEC wins in a row?  This is definitely the toughest of the three, because LSU and A&M couldn't challenge Mississippi State's run defense the way Auburn can.  Auburn didn't play well in their only road game of the year, and would have lost had Kansas State not missed three field goals and turned the ball over three times. . .now they go into Starkville, MS and face a team that thinks it's a world beater.  Should be a helluva game, and I'll roll my Bulldog money over one more time. Mississippi State.   

Texas Christian +10 at Baylor: TCU never had a chance in the old BCS system, and now here they are, one win over Baylor away from being in the driver's seat for the Big 12's Playoff spot.  Baylor sputtered offensively against Texas, but their defense prevented them from being in any danger of losing.  That was Baylor's third straight road game, I'm betting being back at home for this one will help get their aerial attack back on track.  Baylor.     

Oregon -3.5 at UCLA: Two weeks ago this looked like the showdown game for the Pac-12's spot in the Playoffs, but last week both teams fell flat on their faces, with their quarterbacks getting sacked a combined 14 times.  UCLA has been disappointing all season, struggling against mediocre competition.  This could be the week they fall completely apart, and get their ass beat by 3+ touchdowns.  Whichever team's QB can play the whole game will be the winner.  Oregon.    

Alabama -9.5 at Arkansas: Alabama fell apart late against Mississippi, now they have to play on the road again against a team they may take a little too lightly.  Arkansas has had two weeks to prepare for this game after their tough OT loss to Texas A&M.  The Razorbacks have the best run offense in the SEC.  Last year the Tide won this game 52-0.  This year's game will be a good indicator if Nick Saban's Alabama team is growing soft, and about to join LSU on the SEC over-the-hill gang.  Arkansas.   

LSU -2.5 at Florida: The SEC Has Been Bowl. . .but if Florida can somehow find an offense to win this game, and LSU has the shitty defense they need to find it, then the Gators, on paper, at least, are still in the hunt for the SEC East title. . .until they clobbered in three weeks by Georgia.  LSU looked like a lightweight against Auburn last week and their QB situation is a mess.  Both teams QB situations are a mess.  How can two big name schools not find a decent QB?  This could be a repeat of last week's Florida 10-9 snoozer over Tennessee.  LSU.

Mississippi +3 at Texas A&M: Mississippi is in a tough spot, having to go on the road and play a good team after that emotional high last week, winning at home against Alabama.  Hard not to predict a let down here.  Texas A&M. 

USC -3 at Arizona: Arizona is 5-0 and ranked 10th in the Nation, USC is 3-2, unranked. . .and yet Arizona is a HOME UNDERDOG!?!?  I know Arizona came out of nowhere last week, with their win over Oregon, and I just said I figured they'd lose a couple games because of their shabby defense, but this ain't one of them.  Man, talk about no respect.  USC ain't that good, and they just lost at home on one of the worst defended Hail Marys I ever seen.  I figure Arizona could be in trouble at UCLA or Washington State or Utah, maybe even at home against Arizona State. . .but not this game. Arizona.