Wednesday, October 15, 2014

NFL Week 7 Picks

2-5-1 vs the spread last week, 19-24-1 for the season.  My preseason Super Bowl picks, New England and Green Bay, are playing a little better after lousy starts, and the Patriots would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.  Here's a look at the six teams in each conference that currently hold playoff spots:

AFC: San Diego, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, New England, Denver and Baltimore.  Indy and NE look safe, given the shitty divisions they are in.  Denver and SD look solid, with one getting the division title and the other a wild card.  I think the Ravens are probably a safer bet than the Bengals to keep a playoff spot.  The Bengals have injury issues on defense, and cracks have appeared the last two weeks.  Cleveland is right on the doorstep, and could pass Cincy.  The rest of the AFC is garbage, with only Kansas City having a shot at making a playoff run.

NFC: Philadelphia, Arizona, Detroit, Carolina, Dallas and San Francisco.  I could see half these teams ending up out of the playoffs.  I'm not convinced Detroit can hold off Green Bay and/or Chicago, and both Arizona and San Francisco could get passed up by the Seahawks.  Carolina actually looks the safest, because of the horseshit division they play in.  As for Dallas, given that Green Bay, Chicago and Seattle play in tougher divisions, and will take more losses, the Cowboys should be able to hang on to a wild card spot, even if they have their usual late season fade.  

Will Jacksonville or Oakland finish 0-16?  Jacksonville will definitely win at least one, they have home games against Tennessee and the Giants.  The Raiders look like a better bet to get the doughnut.  Their best chance for a win doesn't come until game 15, at home against Buffalo.  If the Bills are out of playoff contention, they may roll over for a Raider team desperate to avoid joining Rod Marinelli's '08 Lions in the NFL Hall of Shame.

Atlanta +7 at Baltimore: Even playing at home couldn't help the Falcons last week, they looked dreadful in a 27-13 loss to the Bears.  Now they have to play on the road against a good Ravens team that's coming off a bye week (meaning they played Tampa Bay).  Atlanta could get buried by 20+.  Baltimore

Seattle -6.5 at St. Louis: The mighty (last year) Seahawks took a home loss against Dallas, and now, at 3-2, they look like a good-but-not-great team saddled with an average offense run by a quarterback who can't pass his team back into a game.  Seattle let Golden Tate go, thinking Percy Harvin would be a *difference maker.* Ha.  The difference is, the Seahawks offense is worse.  St. Louis has been a disappointment.  Quarterback was supposed to be the problem, but the Rams have actually gotten decent play out of third-stringer Austin Davis.  The supposed strengths of the team, a power run game and a strong defense anchored by an elite defensive line, have not shown up.  I always thought Jeff Fisher was a pretty good coach in Houston/Tennessee, but he hasn't done shit with the Rams.  This is Year 21 for Fisher in the League, it may be time to put him out to pasture.  Seattle.  

Cincinnati +3 at Indianapolis: The Bengals' defense is springing leaks everywhere, the injuries are piling up, A.J. Green seems to limp off the field every other play, and now the Ravens and Browns are breathing down their neck.  A couple weeks ago, the Bengals were considered one of the League's best, now they look ready to collapse.  Indianapolis.

New Orleans +2.5 at Detroit: The Lions were supposed to have a high-powered offense, but it's been the defense that was won them four of their first six.  Last week they dismantled the Vikings and rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater.  Now along comes Drew Brees and the Saints. Stat-wise, New Orleans still seems to have a premier offense, they are #2 in yards per game, but Brees has tossed 6 INTs and the defense has sucked, so the Saints are a mediocre 2-3.  When New Orleans has the ball, you have a good offense going against a good defense.  When Detroit has the ball, you have a bad offense going against a bad defense.  The Saints road woes shouldn't be as evident here, as they are playing in a dome.  Tough game to call.  Drew Brees is not just going to sit in the pocket clueless like Bridgewater. . .but it looks like he won't have Jimmy Graham. . .and Matthew Stafford probably won't have Calvin Johnson.  Tough game to call.  I haven't picked the Lions all year.  Why start now?  New Orleans.

Kansas City +4 at San Diego: The Chargers have won five straight after getting nipped by one in the opener at Arizona, but they wobbled a little last week, barely escaping Oakland.  The Chiefs have the pass rush to fluster Phillip Rivers, who's been putting up MVP numbers so far, but 4 points isn't quite enough KC bait.  San Diego.

New York Giants +6.5 at Dallas: The Cowboys are back!  They beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and DeMarco Murray had another hundred yard game, he's on pace for a 2000 yard season. Tony Romo only has 2 INTs since the season-opening dud against the 49ers.  The Giants, after a 3 game win streak, got their ass handed to them last week in Philly.  Back to the terrible Giants of Weeks 1 + 2.  And they lost their best receiver, Victor Cruz.  This one looks like a BLOWOUT.  Except Tom Coughlin has taken worse Giants teams into Dallas and beat, uh, oh, yeah, worse Cowboy teams, so, yeah, the Giants are probably gonna get their ass kicked again this week.  Dallas.  PS: No coach in the NFL appears more down, depressed, discouraged and weary of it all after an ass-whipping than Coughlin.  And doesn't he make it sound here like Victor Cruz passed away? Classic sad sack Coughlin:

Houston +3.5 at Pittsburgh: If this game was played on paper, with all the *stars* both teams have, including the new Football Superman, J.J. Watt, this would be a Marquee Match-Up.  But, alas, they are playing this one on grass, so we got two .500 teams battling it out in a mediocrity Elimination Game, with the winner getting to pose like a playoff contender for one more week, and the loser getting exposed as a loser.  The Steelers have home field, the better QB, the higher ranked rushing offense, passing offense, rushing defense and passing defense.  But the Texans have the white head coach.  Houston.

40 comments:

  1. Texas has a real problem at QB. Shoot, several teams have problems at that position which brings up something. Why haven't any teams tried Tebow? He'd be cheap now, right? Is he that bad? I can't see him being worse than Geno or Fitzgerald or Emmanuel, plus he's a charismatic winner.

    I'm baffled by the non pickup of Tebow in light of some of the terrible QB play in the league.

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  2. Nobody will touch Tebow. I don't know why. You got bum qbs like matt flynn, dan orlovsky, drew stanton, brad gradkowski, derek anderson, etc, etc who can always land a back-up qb job, but nobody will touch Tebow. Did he price himself out of a job? Or is he blacklisted? If he's blacklisted, what's the problem? Religion? You'd think in the ray rice era, the League would want a goody two shoes, just like the nba used to keep a white guy on the bench, back in the day before the complete niggerization of america.

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  3. Good TNF game. Jets were surprising. Smith looked good.

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  4. The question isn't why the Seahawks traded Percy Harvin, but why did the Jets want that fragile crybaby? That's a leper that can't change his spots.

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  5. The Jets are the Jets. With Ryan in charge, that team isn't a winner. He's not HC material.

    You see those vids of his wife? The dude recorded her getting fucked by black guys.

    Of the strange things an HC can do, gun play, drunkenness, motorcycle riding with a coed, having black guys fuck your wife while you record it is not one of them.

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  6. What?? I heard about the foot fetish videos, but not the black cock videos. Is that for real? Ha ha ha. . .no wonder his players love him.

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  7. I don't know how players can take the guy seriously. Guy offers up his wife to have all three holes filled by some stranger? No way I take the guy seriously.

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  8. I'l have to look that up when I get off work. . .

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  9. And like lambs being led to slaughter, the Falcons take the field in Baltimore.

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  10. Ha. . .they're already down 7-zip.

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  11. Smith and Nolan having a discussion on sidelines. Smith needs to blow up at Nolan. Just blow up. Be irrational, knock over a cooler, make players break up a scuffle.... something to light a fire under these assholes.

    Another three and out....

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  12. Ugh. . .Stafford just threw a horrible INT.

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  13. Falcons second string center just went down. Now we're into the third stringer... Ryan just coughed up the ball.

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  14. Lions look lifeless. . .inmates are restless, upset with Stafford's 1 yard passes to Brandon Pettigrew.

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  15. Don't you just love it when things go really bad?

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  16. Lions get suckered by quick snaps. Terrible game. Lions look badly out-coached.

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  17. Reggie Bush limping off again. Percy Harvin is an iron man compared to this guy. . .

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  18. It's comical at this point. I'm wondering how long until our first round pick Matthews has before he blows out a knee.

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  19. No idea why a dome team would ever want Bush. He can't handle that shitty field turf.

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  20. Remember that turf that was pretty much bright green carpet? The stuff now is better than that but it's still harder than real grass and dirt.

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  21. Matt Bryant nearly put pts on board with a 57 yard FG attempt. The thump sound from the ball hitting the cross bar filled the stadium.

    The Falcons are looking at a good 5 years of this crap. They wrote their ticket with that huge contract they gave an above average QB

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  22. Man, had a little rush here. . .missed a good chunk of the games.

    So is Smith now on the hot seat in Atlanta?

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  23. Haha, the criminals need to relax and watch some football. Save the domestic abuse and robbery for later.

    Smith and Dimitroff are both on the hit seat. The Falcons have the runners to be a good team, too. But they don't give this slick little guy named Antone Smith enough. They pass too much thinking Ryan is an elite QB. He isn't.

    I like Mike Smith but he'll take the blame for this mess. Hell, I'm still pissed from when they got rid of Reeves.

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  24. Reeves, man, I forgot about that guy. He had one of the great wins, that upset over Dennis Green's 15-1 Vikings.

    Oh, Man, Stafford just hit a wide open tight end, and the ball clanged off his hands right into a db's. Game over. Jail in an uproar, it'll be a long night here.

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  25. The Lions are cursed, even more than the Falcons. Ryan just sacked for a safety.

    Good thing the Falcons are playing a home game next week. In London. Against your Lions.

    It'll be a battle of the bums. I say the Lions take that game because this Atlanta team is lost. After this loss, no way the coaches have the ear of the team. They are looking at off season now.

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  26. Flacco passed a perfect td drop into the hands of Smith. Perfect pass, tight coverage, TD.

    29-7. And coach smith is letting Hester do the kickoff return. Why risk it? Less than two minutes left....why risk it?

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  27. Oh cool, Fox switched to the Lions game.

    At least the Lions are still in this...

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  28. Hoooooo, bet the jail is rocking now!

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  29. Oh, yeah! The shitty jail food will taste sweet now! You never seen so many drunks, wife-beaters, drug addicts, rapists and arsonists so happy. Lock-up don't seem so bad when the Lions win.

    Thanks to a terrible pick by Brees, who let the Lions back in. . .

    Stafford needed that last TD pass. . .it's been a struggle for him.

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  30. You see where little Colt McCoy went in for Cousins? Went 11/12.

    I've been a fan of McCoy for a while but wonder if he has the same durability issues of RG3.

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  31. McCoy is a head trauma waiting to happen. . .

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  32. Lions and Falcons next week in London. . .I'm already picking the Falcons. I bet the London Media will be agitating the monster Suh. . .Suh will probably stomp Ryan or something stupid.

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  33. McCoy will probably be the guy in DC till RG3 comes back or he takes a shot to the facemask. They're going to be on that injury carousel with those two and turnovers galore with Cousins. It'll get so bad they'll have to change the name to distract from it all.

    If the Falcons beat the Lions it will be in the most half assed way possible. They're horrible. Stafford should throw bomb after bomb, knowing the defense is going to let half them go for touchdowns and if it's an interception, Ryan can't lead his team into the end zone.

    I have Lions by 21.

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  34. Damn. . .I just watched those highlights from the St. Louis - Seattle game. . .after saying in my little preview that Fisher hadn't done shit, and maybe he was used up after 21 years in the League, he pulled off a couple *Music City Miracle*-type plays. . .Seahawks 3-3.

    On any given Sunday. . .

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  35. I wonder if the Browns fans are going to be clamoring for Johnny Football after Hoyer lost to the Jags.

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  36. Hoyer also completed something like 40% of his passes. If he stinks it up next game, Manziel is in.

    Fisher looks like he should be playing county fairs with a Lynyrd Skynyrd cover band as one of the three bassists.

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  37. Ha ha ha. . .Sean Payton seems on the verge of tears after the game, then blames the referees while saying he's not blaming the referees, then gets pissy with a reporter. What a pussy!

    http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-orleans-saints/0ap3000000413697/Saints-postgame-press-conference

    http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-orleans-saints/0ap3000000413695/Payton-scolds-reporter-in-post-game-interview

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  38. Haha, Manning pulled a Rob Ford for what should have been his Favre breaking TD.

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  39. Thinking on Peyton's fall to ground on what should have been the record breaking play demonstrates his problem. He chokes in big situations.

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  40. Oh, did Manning set an EA Sports record? As long as it erases Brett Favre's name, then good for Peyton.

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