NFL Week 6 Picks

3-4 vs the spread last week, 17-19 for the season. Former Detroit head coach Psycho Jim Schwartz got to feel what it's like to be on the other side of Lions' football Sunday, watching/benefitting as his old team slowly, and in excruciating fashion, gave a game away.  Three missed field goals, dropped TD passes, star players limping off the field, then the game lost as the opposing kicker easily bombs through a long distance three pointer at the end.  Instead of that sinking, cursed feeling he felt at the end of so many games during his five year run in Detroit, Schwartz finally felt the favor of the football gods.  Schwartz, always angry and with a chip on his shoulder, gave his defensive players a fiery-but-self-pitying pre-game speech, no doubt reflecting his persecution mania, and painting the Detroit organization and Lions' fans as dishonorable and lowdown.  And his Bills players responded, battering Matthew Stafford for four quarters, and at game's end carrying the former Lion boss off the field on their shoulders (a move Schwartz requested way back in July's training camp, and reflecting how badly he's wanted to rub Detroit's nose in his firing).  As for new Detroit coach Jim Caldwell, Sunday was his baptism into Lion football.  He'd had a pretty good go for the first four weeks of the season, and probably thought he'd walked into a favorable situation in Detroit.  After Sunday's game, in which he saw how flustered Stafford could be by a strong pass rush, and how uncomfortable Stafford is without Calvin Johnson on the field, Caldwell may now begin to have a few nagging doubts.  I always thought Caldwell was the worst coach in NFL when he was at Indianapolis, and his decision with 36 seconds left in the game to try a 51 yard FG with a kicker who had badly missed two earlier and shorter field goals, only confirmed my opinion.  His kicker was sure to miss, and leave Buffalo only one pass away from field goal range.  Sure enough, the Lions kicker missed by a mile, cast-off Kyle Orton hit a twenty yard pass to Sammy Watkins, and Dan Carpenter nailed a 58 yard field goal to teach Jim Caldwell a lesson I am sure he will forget.  One lesson Caldwell will not forget, however, is how these losses snowball in Detroit.  Loss after loss after loss now loom ahead for the man who thought he came to Detroit to reach the mountaintop.

Drew Stanton finally caught up to Arizona Sunday, he was terrible against the Broncos, who sat on the run and forced Stanton to beat them in the air. . .he couldn't, he was a pathetic 11 for 26 for 118 yards, and with no help on the offensive side of the ball, the Cardinal's defense cracked, giving up nearly 500 yards to Peyton Manning.  

Indianapolis -2.5 at Houston: One of these teams will win the terrible AFC South, then get bounced early from the playoffs.  Which team will win the NFL's worst division?  It ain't gonna be the team quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Anybody else starting to think J.J. Watt is the Peyton Manning of defense?  C'mon, the hype over this guy is ridiculous.  He's a fine player, but, please, he's not a Reggie White or even a Bruce Smith.  He's not in their class as a run defender.  Indianapolis.

Jacksonville +6 at Tennessee: Ha.  They should move this game to London, only those interested in the novelty of American football could care about this Toilet Bowl game.  The teams are on a combined 9 game losing streak, and Tennessee somehow managed to blow a 25 point lead last week at home against the Browns.  And now they may have to start Charlie Whitehurst!  If Jake Locker can't go, Jacksonville may actually win this game.  Both teams are terrible on defense, while Tennessee is a little better on offense. Rookie Blake Bortles is starting for the Jags, and completing 67% of his passes, but he's mostly a nickel-and-dimer right now, anytime he tries to get the ball downfield, he's an INT risk, with six picks already in less than a hundred throws.  New coach Ken Whisenhunt may feel some early heat if the Titans somehow lose this game.  Tennessee.  

Detroit -2.5 at Minnesota: It's there for all to see.  Former Lion head coach Psycho Jim Schwartz knows Matthew Stafford better than anyone else, and he had his Buffalo Bills defense schemed perfectly last week. Schwartz and his Bills defenders were laughing at Stafford, who without Calvin Johnson to chuck it to, looked like Daunte Culpepper without Randy Moss.  Stafford panicked in the pocket without Johnson, his security blanket wide-out.  He took six sacks, made a ton of terrible pressured throws, couldn't move the Lions offense, and looked completely clueless as his team slowly blew an early 14-0 lead.  It can't be denied any longer, Stafford can't win without Johnson, and he'll never be anything but an average (at best) NFL qb.  He needs that 6'5" leaping freak athlete to grab his off-target throws.  Even without Johnson, Stafford has some decent receivers, Golden Tate, a couple of first round draft pick tight ends, but he can't get them the ball.  He won't have Johnson in this game, and the Lions have no chance.  NO CHANCE.  Stafford has never progressed beyond the throw-it-up-for-grabs-to-Calvin stage.  Teddy Bridgewater, in his second start, with a terrible collection of receivers, will probably look more polished than the veteran Stafford.  The Lions have NO CHANCE to win this game. Their defense will keep them in it early, then grow dejected watching their sputtering offense, and then break down in the second half.  Bet the house on the Vikings.  Minnesota.

New England -3 at Buffalo: Tom Brady came back from the dead Sunday night, leading the Pats to a blow-out win over the Bengals.  He'll die again, this Sunday.  The Bills defense is for real.  They will shut down the New England run game, and then wreck Tom Brady like they wrecked Matty Stafford.  Hell, they may wreck him worse than they wrecked Stafford.  Brady is old and gun shy, and the Bills may crumple him up worse than the Chiefs did.  The only reason we won't be seeing Jimmy Garoppolo again this week is because the Bills offense is so bad, New England will be within 10 points most of the game.  After this game, the *experts* will realize the Bills are now the team to beat in the AFC East.  Buffalo.

Pittsburgh +2 at Cleveland: Nobody plays crazier, wilder games than the Browns.  3 points is the biggest margin in any of their games this year.  3 points! The Browns are 2-2, and could just as easily be 4-0 or 0-4.  They are the NFL's perfect team in its never-ending quest for parity.  If Cleveland can find a way to win this game, they got Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa coming up. . .look out, the Brownies could be a contender in the AFC North. . .and remember, they get the most dangerous receiver in the NFL, Josh Gordon, back for the last six games.  So this is actually a Big Game for the Browns.  The Steelers barely showed up against Jacksonville last week, only doing the bare minimum in a lackluster 17-9 win.  The Steelers should be better than what they are showing.  They got their run game back with Le'Veon Bell, Roethlisberger is still a decent QB, and, until Gordon comes back, they got the best receiver in the league, Antonio Brown. . .and they're still a Top 10 total defense team. . .so why do they look so mediocre?  We may be seeing the David Shaw syndrome here.  A negro boy wonder takes over a successful program built by a white, wins big in the early years while the white man's stamp is still on the team, but when the white man's legacy runs out, the negro caretaker is left scratching his head over a squad that sinks to mediocrity.  Cleveland.

Green Bay -3 at Miami: The Packers have the look of a team ready to start a roll. . .they crushed division rivals Chicago and Minnesota in their last two games, but. . .their run defense is horrible, and Miami averages 5 yards per carry, so. . .who knows?  The only known known is Aaron Rodgers is a lot better QB than Ryan Tannehill, but. . .Tannehill's wife is a lot hotter than Aaron Rodger's girlfriend.  Hey, Rodgers, what do you think about the other team's QB having a better-looking piece of ass?

Yup.  That's what I thought. Could be the *intangible* that gives the edge to the Dolphins.  Miami. 

Chicago +3 at Atlanta: The Flag Football Super Bowl!  Jay Cutler.  Matt Ryan.  Alshon Jeffery.  Brandon Marshall.  Julio Jones.  Roddy White.  And two defenses that think it's illegal to tackle.  Ha. These are the best 2-3 teams in football.  The Bears have a brutal opening schedule, six of their first nine games are on the road.  But they've actually played better on the road. They'd be 3-0 as visitors had they not blown last week's game at Carolina.  The Falcons have been far better at home, so this looks like the week the Bears go into the crapper on the road.  Atlanta.

Dallas +8.5 at Seattle: The Cowboys are the #2 rush offense and the Seahawks are the #1 rush defense.  The Seahawks should be able to slow down DeMarco Murray, and Tony Romo is due for one of his patented shitty games.  I just can't see Dallas at 5-1, with a road victory over the Super Bowl champs.  Jerry Jones would be I-told-you-soing from now until the Cowboys playoff game loss.  Seattle.