NFL Week 9 Picks

2-5 vs the spread last week, 25-32-1 for the season.  Monday night sent Cowboy Nation the first small wave of panic over Dallas' inevitable collapse as the Cowboys' six game win streak came to an unlikely halt at home against the Native Americans.  Tony Romo's little back ouchie was the initial harbinger of doom to unnerve the Dallas faithful, but if I were them I'd be more worried how Washington's journeyman QB Colt McCoy saw through the Cowboys' smoke-and-mirrors defense.  Despite the loss, DeMarco Murray continued his string of 100 yard games, and is on pace to break Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record.  Watching Murray pile up the yards, I got to thinking about the best running backs I've ever seen, and as I was recalling the greats, it startled me how few of them ever made it into a Super Bowl, or even ever really got into many playoff games.  Just as you can win a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at QB, you can win the Big One with Timmy Smith at RB.

Anyway, here are The Ten Best Running Backs I've Ever Seen:

1. Barry Sanders.  No contest.  With Sanders at #1, there isn't even really a #2.  He was a head better than the rest.  The speed, the crazy moves, the incredible leg strength, the refusal to give up on a run, the lack of showboating.  One of the few ever to average 5.0 yards per carry for a career.  5 yards per carry for a career, and the best QB he ever played with was Scott Mitchell!!  Only played in 6 playoff games.  Best playoff game: 169 yards.  Playoff yards per carry 4.2.  As for his *mysterious* retirement, I believe he simply wanted to match the pattern of the role model his nutty dad set for him: Jim Brown.  Sanders wanted to quit while he was still the best, and not hang on for a few years chasing records that would be broken, anyway, while struggling to average 4 yards per carry, the way Emmitt Smith did his last 5 years, and which is why you ain't gonna see Emmitt on my list of 10 Greatest RBs.

2. O.J. Simpson. Played on even worse teams than Barry Sanders, hung on two years too long, but still had a 4.7 yards per carry career average.  His best QB was Joe Ferguson, ha!  Only played in one playoff game, gaining 49 yards in 15 carries against the Steel Curtain in 1974.  Speed, fluid moves, under-rated toughness.  If Jim Kelly had the Juice instead of Thurman Thomas, the Bills win four straight Super Bowls.  Still boggles my mind that this guy, who really had it all, the Heisman, the 2000 yard season, fame beyond the football field, ended up a double MURDERER, with that surreal Bronco freeway chase. . .the American Dream revealed to be the American Nightmare.  Unbelievable.  Unbelievable.

3. Earl Campbell.  Unmatched combination of power and speed.  A runaway bull, probably had the greatest Monday Night Game ever, 199 yards, 4 tds vs the Dolphins in 1978.  Had three monster seasons to begin his NFL career, then the knees fell apart, and his last four years he was just a shell of his previous self.  Best QB he ever played with: Dan Pastorini!!  4.3 yards per carry for career.  Six playoff games.  Best playoff game: 118 yards.  3.1 yards per carry in the playoffs.

4. Eric Dickerson. Big, fast, with a punishing upright style of running, similar to Adrian Peterson, except he didn't hit children.  Hung around too long, watering his career yards per carry down to 4.4.  Seven playoff games.  Best playoff game: Playoff record 248 yards vs Dallas, 1986.  4.9 yards per carry in playoffs. 

5. Billy Sims.  A mini-Earl Campbell, his career cut short after 5 years by a devastating knee injury.  Best QB he ever played with: Gary Danielson!!  4.5 yards per carry.  Two playoff games.  Best playoff game: 114 yards.  5.1 yards per carry in playoffs.  Best karate kick run of All-Time:

6. Tony Dorsett. Actually played in and won a Super Bowl with Dallas in 1977.  4.3 yards per carry for career.  17 Playoff games.  Best playoff game: 160 yards.  4.6 yards per carry in playoffs.

7. LaDanian Tomlinson. 4.3 yards per carry for career.  10 Playoff games.  Best playoff game: 123 yards.  3.6 yards per carry in playoffs.

8. Duane Thomas. The Greatest Running Back Who Never Was. You know those old highlight reels of Jim Brown, where he looks like he's barely running, and nobody can catch him?  Or it looks like he's just jogging through a hole, but the tacklers just bounce off him?  Duane Thomas is the only running back I ever saw who matched that.  Tom Landry's greatest coaching achievement was keeping this head case on the field for two years, both Super Bowl years, with one Super Bowl win.  Strangest great football player of All-Time.  Went the entire 1971 season without speaking to his coaches and teammates.  When asked by Media prior to the 1972 Super Bowl what he thought about playing in the ultimate game, he responded: if it's the ultimate game, why are they playing it again next year?  A surly, menacing negro, Thomas was voted the MVP of Super Bowl VI, but fearful of what he might say at the trophy banquet, the award was presented to goody-two-shoes Roger Staubach, instead.  Look how nervous Tom Brookshier was interviewing him after the Super Bowl win:

Hard to believe, but Thomas became even moodier and more difficult to handle, and the Cowboys traded him to San Diego, but he failed to report, and missed the entire 1972 season.  George Allen tried to get him to play for his famous Over-The-Hill-Gang Redskins teams in 1973 and 1974, but Thomas was a mere ghost of himself.  I wonder what this crazy motherfucker is doing now?  4.5 yards per carry for career.  6 Playoff games.  Best playoff game: 143 yards.  4.0 yards per carry in playoffs.

9. Bo Jackson.  Beast.  Amazing freak.  His body couldn't take his own freak size and speed.  What could he have done if he could have ever carried the ball 300 times in a season?  5.4 yards per carry for career.  One playoff game, 6 carries for 77 yards.  

10. Walter Payton. Always felt he was a little over-rated, but he sure was a durable workhorse.  Talked like a faggot.  Didn't have great speed, and I was a little surprised to see he managed to average 4.4 yards per carry for his career.  Played in one Super Bowl, a win, but by that time old Walter didn't have much left.  In fact, William *The Refrigerator* Perry was a better running back in that game.  9 Playoff games.  Best playoff game: 104 yards.  3.5 yards per carry in playoffs.

Honorable Mention: Adrian Peterson, Marcus Allen, John Riggins, Marv Hubbard, Jamaal Charles, Larry Csonka, Larry Brown, Franco Harris.

New Orleans -2 at Carolina: Big game in the little NFC South, to see which losing team can get to .500 and take command of the Rusty School Bus/Feed The Children/Appalachia Division.  New Orleans is 3-0 at home, 0-4 on the road. . .and this game is on the road, so. . .but Carolina's offense is lousy, Cam Newton has no receivers or running backs to work with, so this has to be the one road game the Saints can win.  New Orleans.

Arizona +4 at Dallas: The Cowboys lost to Colt McCoy. . .I didn't even know he was still in the League.  Tony Romo got a *contusion* on his back.  Arizona will bring the house to knock him out, so Dallas will need a huge game from DeMarco Murray to win this one. . .only problem is, Arizona is the #3 rush defense.  Arizona won ugly again last week, getting a late bomb from Carson Palmer to John Brown to beat the Eagles.  I don't think either team is quite as good as their record, but I have a little more faith in the Cardinals.  Arizona. 

Philadelphia -2.5 at Houston: Arian Foster is running better than everybody except DeMarco Murray.  Despite a weak schedule, the Texans are just 4-4, and their defense hasn't been as good as it was advertised to be.  Plus they still have a shitty quarterback.  The Eagles only two losses are at San Fran and Arizona, and they could have won both.  Nick Foles only had two INTs last year, he's got nine already this season.  He may ultimately be what keeps the Eagles out of the Super Bowl, but he won't keep them from beating the chronically disappointing Texans.  Philadelphia.

San Diego +1.5 at Miami: Two three loss teams. . .if Miami wants to be a Wild Card contender, they need to win this home game against a playoff contending rival.  Unlike most of the NFL, the Dolphins have played only one close game. . .it's all or nothing for Miami.  With their defense and strong run game, they should be better than 4-3. This is a big game for goofy-looking Dolphins coach Joe Philbin.  Lose this one, fall to 4-4, and the Dolphins are probably looking at another out-of-the-playoffs season, and he'll be out of a job, as Miami owner and Michigan alum Stephen Ross opens up the checkbook for Jim Harbaugh.  The Chargers have lost two in a row, and there's no more Phillip Rivers-for-MVP talk. The Chargers problem is they have no run game, it's all on Rivers.  The Dolphins really should win this game, but their coach is so goofy-looking, it's hard to take them seriously.  San Diego.   

Denver -3 at New England: Oh, boy, yet another Brady vs Manning *classic.*  So tired of these games, because they're really just League-sponsored Peyton Manning-is-as-good-if-not-better-than-Brady infomercials.  But nobody taking an honest look at the two can conclude anything other than Brady has had the far better career.  The Broncos have the better team, they finally have a tough run defense, and it will be up to Brady to keep the Pats in this one.  Two of the best coaches in the League.  Denver's won their last four, all by fourteen or more points.  I still think the real New England team is the one that wheezed by horrible Oakland, then got hammered by Kansas City.  Denver.

Baltimore EVEN at Pittsburgh: The Steelers have turned into an offensive juggernaut since the first match between these teams, a Ravens blow-out.  The Steelers can run and pass--though they've played an incredibly soft schedule.  I was surprised how poorly Baltimore played last week against Cincy, they really had no business being in that game. But I just have a gut feeling the Steelers recent offensive explosion is due to playing AFC South softies. Baltimore.

College Football Week 10 Picks

1-2-1 vs the spread last week, 31-18-1 for the season.

Florida +13 at Georgia: In their last game, Florida held Missouri to 20 yards passing, and 119 total yards. . .and somehow managed to give up 42 points!  Huh?!?!  Florida is the #12 total defense in the country, and yet sits at 3-3.  Only Michigan's Brady Hoke sits on a hotter seat than the Gators' Will Muschamp.  Florida sucks, and has sucked for the last year and a half, because their offense is abysmal.  Their offense is so bad, you don't even have to worry about Georgia's Clean Shirt defense in this one. . .or ten year back-up QB Hutson Mason having to do anything.  Georgia.

Auburn +2.5 at Mississippi: Can Ole Miss recover from last week's devastating loss to LSU?  Rebel head coach Hugh Freeze and QB Bo Wallace badly mismanaged the End Game, and you have to wonder if Wallace feels like he has to make amends against Auburn.  If so, I can see him forcing plays and making even more bonehead decisions.  And even the great Mississippi defense unraveled late in the game, allowing LSU to run, run, run, run the ball downfield on the game-winning td drive. Auburn gave up over 500 yards to a mediocre South Carolina team last week, barely scraping out a 42-35 W.  I don't see Auburn as Playoff caliber, I don't think they can handle either Georgia or Alabama, but they get Mississippi at the right time.  When you lose a game the way the Rebels did last week, it's not that easy to move forward.  Auburn.

Arkansas +10.5 at Mississippi State: The Bulldogs had a tougher time than expected against Kentucky, giving up over 500 yards in a game that went down to the wire.  It may simply have been, after playing three straight Top 10 teams, Mississippi State was on cruise control against the underwhelming Wildcats.  After battling Alabama to a near-standstill, Arkansas looked played out against Georgia, and got buried early, dropping former Big 10 coach Bret Bielema to 0-12 in the SEC.  And it will be 0-13 after Saturday's game in Starkville.  Mississippi State.

Arizona +3.5 at UCLA: Arizona #6 total offense, UCLA #21 total offense.  UCLA #89 total defense, Arizona #99 total defense.  Two terrible defenses, one pretty good offense and one great offense.  Arizona.

NFL Week 8 Picks

4-3 vs the spread last week, 23-27-1 for the season.  It's interesting how some teams retain the exact same losing character even through coaching changes.  The Lions are a classic example, decade after decade of losing in the same manner.  Here they are again, off to the same kind of a hot start they had under Jim Schwartz, and before him, under Rod Marinelli (yes, even Marinelli got the Lions off to a 6-2 start in 2007, then lost 23 of his next 24 games, including the fantastic 0-16 2008 season), under Bobby Ross, under Wayne Fontes, under Darryl Rogers. . .only in the bleakest of the Millen years, under Marty Mornhinwheg and Steve Mariucci, did the Lions not grease their fans with the every-other-year playoff tease.  The meltdowns would occur with the playoffs looming on horizon, then the dumb penalties, impossible turnovers, freak injuries, record breaking field goals against, etc, etc as the Lions lost game after game down the stretch, and mostly to NFL bottom feeders.  The newest Lion coach, Jim Caldwell, has Detroit off to a 5-2 start. . .so the collapse must just be ahead.  

We see the same phenomenon exhibited in the Texans.  They dumped basket-case Gary Kubiak and replaced him with Bill O'Brien, supposedly a more stable force, who managed to hold Penn State somewhat together through the awful Paterno-Sandusky pedophile shit storm. Yet here are the Texans, even with a new QB, exhibiting their same schizophrenic character. . .smooth sailing, then a sudden, inexplicable storm sweeps them into defeat.  The Monday night game was vintage Texans. . .they were in control with their sturdy defense and running game, then, out of nowhere, they stumble and bumble into a perfect storm of bad football, vomiting up 24 points in the blink of an eye.  That's why I don't buy the J.J. Watt hype.  Why ain't he sacking QBs and forcing fumbles when the Texans are going into the shitter?  He disappears, just like the rest of his mates.  

A lot of goofy comeback wins last week, and a crazy comeback save by the Rams. . .my favorite was the Bills-Vikings game, because the last second game-winning Bills td left rookie Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer so stunned, he wasn't really sure his team actually lost the game:

Sorry, coach, but I just checked with Roger Goodell. . .the Bills did win the game.  I know it must be difficult to hear the news, but can you tell us how you are feeling?

Poor Zimmer.  But at least he didn't act like a fucking baby, the way Sean Payton did after his Saints choked one away in Detroit.  After the game, Payton blamed the refs for the loss.  Hey, maybe Payton doesn't really believe the Saints lost, either?  Maybe he thinks the game was reversed due to the imaginary blown calls and the Saints were awarded a victory?  Hey, Sean, is that it?  Do you think the Saints have been declared the winner by the NFL's imaginary Refereeing Oversight Committee?

Ha ha.  Fuck you, Payton!

San Diego +7.5 at Denver: Oh, boy, here we go again!  Another record for Peyton Manning, more Denver-is-the-best-team hype, they've improved their defense, they just demolished the 49ers and everybody knows the 49ers are great, blah blah blah, Denver and Peyton Manning are the best ever, woo wah, hoo hah!!  They might go 15-1 and be immortalized just like they were last year, but they'll never get by Joe Flacco in the playoffs.  And the Chargers aren't scared of the Broncos, either.  San Diego.   

Detroit -3.5 vs Atlanta, in London: First test to see if the Lions remain true to themselves under their new coach Jim Caldwell.  The Lions got the playoff tease going with their 5-2 record, and look, now they get to play a 2-5 team. . .yippee, baby!  We gonna be 6-2!  This is the type of game the Lions always lose on their way out of the playoffs. . .like last year's games against the Steelers, Tampa and the Giants.  On paper, the Lions front four should shred Atlanta's patchwork o-line and knock Matt Ryan on his ass all game.  Ryan shouldn't have time get the ball downfield to Julio Jones.  And ancient running back Steven Jackson shouldn't gain more than 30 yards.  But here's what will happen: the Lions will come out flat-footed.  Either get hit by a Hester kick return or a defensive fumble or int return, then Antone Smith will take a 3 yard pass and turn it into a 60 yard score.  In an early hole, Stafford will pass the Lions back into the game, briefly, then the Lions seal the loss with a late INT, or a Reggie Bush or Joique Bell fumble.  Detroit, London, it don't matter, they could play this game on Mars, and it would still be Same Old Lions.  Atlanta.

Seattle -4.5 at Carolina: The Panther's defense has fallen apart, and the Seahawks look like an average team.  Jeff Fisher pulled a fast one on Pete Carroll last week, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the Seahawks, and then rolling the dice late in the game with all-or-nothing fake punt.  All credit to Fisher and the Rams. . .they beat a team that is clearly better than they are.  There's nothing Carolina can do to top what St. Louis did.  All the Panthers can do is, well. . .remember what Bobby Knight said about rape?  Seattle.

Baltimore +1 at Cincinnati: The Ravens are kicking it in gear, they got that old Super Bowl Ravens look. . .tough defense, decent run game, some deep balls from Flacco.  The Bengals got that sink hole look.  They started 3-0, with many claiming they were the best in the League.  Now they are a punching bag even for soft teams like Indianapolis.  Marvin Lewis is a colored poor man's version of Marty Schottenheimer. . .ain't never gonna win the Big Prize.  Baltimore.

Chicago +6.5 at New England:  New England's 5-2, but I'm still not convinced they're any good.  They barely squeaked past the Jets, and had the scheduling luck to face the Bengals just as Cincy was going into the shitter.  They got no receivers and no running backs who can run, just one running back who is a threat coming out of the backfield.  And they got a weak run defense.  That's not Super Bowl material. Supposedly the Bears locker room was in turmoil after their ugly home loss to the Dolphins last week.  Supposedly some fingers were pointed at turnover machine Jane Cutler.  But all that locker room noise don't matter.  I still think the Bears are dangerous, and I'd rather have their roster than New England's. . .but of course, you can keep faggot coach Marc Trestman.  I think he's the Bears biggest problem.  In computer football, he'd be unbeatable, but he sucks at handling the *variables* of a roster top-loaded with erratic negroes.  Chicago. 

Philadelphia +2.5 at Arizona: No team plays an uglier brand of winning football than the Cardinals.  You got their world-class defense chained to a Carson Palmer hope-and-a-prayer offense.  I don't think Nick Foles can handle what Arizona is gonna put in his face.  The Eagles are a wobbly 5-1, winning three close games and their schedule has been soft.  They have the look of a 5-1 team that will finish 5-5 in their last ten, and here's one of the five losses.  Arizona.     

Green Bay +1 at New Orleans: The Packers have won four in a row, three of them blowouts--they have the look of a team rounding into Super Bowl form. . .and all due to one reason: Aaron Rodgers.  Eddie Lacy is a decent running back, and Jordy Nelson is a nice fast white boy, but the rest of this team is average.  But as long as Rodgers is healthy, Green Bay can beat anybody, anywhere, any time.  The Saints fell apart late against Detroit last week, they are 2-4, 0-4 on the road and 2-0 at home.  But their two home wins were hardly impressive, an OT win against Lovie Smith's hapless Tampa, and a 20-9 win over the #28-less Vikings.  The Packers are an UNDERDOG?!?!  Really?  Do people really think home field means that much?  All of a sudden the Saints will have a defense, a running game, and Drew Brees will turn back the clock?  No.  The Saints are a bad football team about to face Aaron Rodgers on a hot streak.  Packers win E-Z.  Green Bay. 

College Football Week 9 Picks

4-2 vs the spread last week, 30-16 for the season. Nick Saban punished Texas A&M 59-0 for all the shit the Tide took for their one point win over Arkansas.  First time all year Alabama has looked like a Playoff Team.  A&M's Negro wonder coach Kevin Sumlin has fallen on hard times since the surprise opening week beat-down of South Carolina.  His defense-lite system once again looks SEC suspect. Baylor lost to West Virginia. . .didn't see the game, and I'm glad I didn't: 18 penalties for 215 yards for the Bears, 14 penalties for 138 yards for WVU?!?!?  Ridiculous!  The game must have taken 4 1/2 hours to play.  Anyway, now Kansas State is on top of the Big 12, which means: no Playoff spot for the Big 12.  Oklahoma has two losses, Baylor flopped, so a one-loss Notre Dame will get a playoff spot over Baylor, TCU or Kansas State.  The only way the Big 12 gets a team in the playoffs is if the Michigan State - Ohio State winner gets upset in the Big 10 title game. . .and that ain't gonna happen.  Speaking of Notre Dame, Irish head coach Brian Kelly was big-time red-assed after an offensive pass interference penalty wiped out would have been a game-winning td against Florida State.  As much as I hated to see the corrupt *Semen*oles celebrating a win, I have to say the officials made the correct call on that play, the Notre Dame players were clearly blocking down field.  If they had run the play the way most teams do, with the receivers splitting off after a slight bump, they would have scored anyway, FSU's coverage was dust, but instead, for some reason, the Irish receivers lowered their heads and bull-rushed downfield.  Too bad for college football.

Lousy schedule this week. . .

Texas +10 at Kansas State: Do you think Nick Saban or Pete Carroll could do what Bill Snyder does at K-State?  With flea market talent win a better-than-fair-share of games against NAME schools?  Hell, Saban wasn't ALL THAT at Michigan State, which is a helluva lot easier place to win than Kansas State.  Snyder just beat Oklahoma, has KSU in first place in the Big 12, and theoretically in the hunt for a Playoff spot.  Snyder gets one or two of these David vs Goliath wins every year--but with his thin roster it's tough to beat the BIGS week-after-week all season. And make no mistake, despite the Longhorns 3-4 record, Texas is still a BIG, talent-wise.  They got a ton more NFL prospects than Kansas State. We have to wonder if Charlie *Doing It The Right Way* Strong will crow about another moral victory if he loses by 3.  Texas pushed Oklahoma all over the field two weeks ago, and lost.  Texas should have beat Oklahoma, but didn't.  Kansas State shouldn't have beat Oklahoma, but did.  Despite the phony rankings and point spreads, it will be no shame if Kansas State loses this game.  But they will only lose if Texas manages to play to their ability for the first time this season.  Texas.

Michigan +17 at Michigan State: Let's hope dopey-looking Michigan coach Brady Hoke watched the Rams - Seahawks game, and took note of Jeff Fisher, who coached TRUTHFULLY for sixty full minutes. . .meaning he coached like he had a team WITH NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE.  That's how you can call for a fake punt from your own 18 yard line, up by 2, with 3 minutes to go.  Michigan has nothing left to lose, they've had two weeks to prepare, so there's no excuse not to PLAY TO WIN.  There's no reason to play pussy, by-the-book football.  Hoke, you dumb fuck, please don't try any 50 yd FGs with your horseshit kicker, and please don't try any 4-and-1 quarterback sneaks with your tissue paper o-line--in other words, please, no more of the hopeless football you've shamed Michigan with for the last 2 1/2 years.  The Spartans have played one good team this year, Oregon, and they lost.  How good are they, really?  The defense is good, but not last year's great.  But the offense is more explosive. For Michigan to win, they'd have to play far better than they've played in any game this season. . .they need an anomaly game.  Doubt it'll happen.  But 17 points, damn, can't they at least cover?  Probably not, because senior QB Devin Gardner still wets himself during road games.  Michigan State.

Mississippi State -14 at Kentucky: Kentucky played their first decent team last week, LSU, and they got clocked.  Now they get Mississippi State?  And they're getting less points than Michigan against Michigan State?  Kentucky couldn't stop LSU's mediocre offense, now they face a Bulldog team that destroyed LSU?  Only 14 points?  I'll be shocked if Mississippi State doesn't win by double that.  Mississippi State.  

Mississippi -3.5 at LSU: Ole Miss plays defense the way LSU used to.  You got to have a QB who can pass the fucking ball to have any chance to beat the  Rebels.  You ain't gonna beat Mississippi running the ball.  Unfortunately, LSU don't have a QB who can pass the fucking ball.  In fact, there may not be a single QB anywhere in the SEC who can pass the fucking ball.  Did you see last week's Missouri - Florida game?  The two teams COMBINED only had 208 passing yards.  Anyway, this is LSU's last chance to make any meaningful noise this season in the SEC, and I expect Les Miles will try anything and everything to save his team from also-ran status. . .but in the end, the Rebels ought to be able to grind out a 7 point win.  Mississippi.

NFL Week 7 Picks

2-5-1 vs the spread last week, 19-24-1 for the season.  My preseason Super Bowl picks, New England and Green Bay, are playing a little better after lousy starts, and the Patriots would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.  Here's a look at the six teams in each conference that currently hold playoff spots:

AFC: San Diego, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, New England, Denver and Baltimore.  Indy and NE look safe, given the shitty divisions they are in.  Denver and SD look solid, with one getting the division title and the other a wild card.  I think the Ravens are probably a safer bet than the Bengals to keep a playoff spot.  The Bengals have injury issues on defense, and cracks have appeared the last two weeks.  Cleveland is right on the doorstep, and could pass Cincy.  The rest of the AFC is garbage, with only Kansas City having a shot at making a playoff run.

NFC: Philadelphia, Arizona, Detroit, Carolina, Dallas and San Francisco.  I could see half these teams ending up out of the playoffs.  I'm not convinced Detroit can hold off Green Bay and/or Chicago, and both Arizona and San Francisco could get passed up by the Seahawks.  Carolina actually looks the safest, because of the horseshit division they play in.  As for Dallas, given that Green Bay, Chicago and Seattle play in tougher divisions, and will take more losses, the Cowboys should be able to hang on to a wild card spot, even if they have their usual late season fade.  

Will Jacksonville or Oakland finish 0-16?  Jacksonville will definitely win at least one, they have home games against Tennessee and the Giants.  The Raiders look like a better bet to get the doughnut.  Their best chance for a win doesn't come until game 15, at home against Buffalo.  If the Bills are out of playoff contention, they may roll over for a Raider team desperate to avoid joining Rod Marinelli's '08 Lions in the NFL Hall of Shame.

Atlanta +7 at Baltimore: Even playing at home couldn't help the Falcons last week, they looked dreadful in a 27-13 loss to the Bears.  Now they have to play on the road against a good Ravens team that's coming off a bye week (meaning they played Tampa Bay).  Atlanta could get buried by 20+.  Baltimore. 

Seattle -6.5 at St. Louis: The mighty (last year) Seahawks took a home loss against Dallas, and now, at 3-2, they look like a good-but-not-great team saddled with an average offense run by a quarterback who can't pass his team back into a game.  Seattle let Golden Tate go, thinking Percy Harvin would be a *difference maker.* Ha.  The difference is, the Seahawks offense is worse.  St. Louis has been a disappointment.  Quarterback was supposed to be the problem, but the Rams have actually gotten decent play out of third-stringer Austin Davis.  The supposed strengths of the team, a power run game and a strong defense anchored by an elite defensive line, have not shown up.  I always thought Jeff Fisher was a pretty good coach in Houston/Tennessee, but he hasn't done shit with the Rams.  This is Year 21 for Fisher in the League, it may be time to put him out to pasture.  Seattle.  

Cincinnati +3 at Indianapolis: The Bengals' defense is springing leaks everywhere, the injuries are piling up, A.J. Green seems to limp off the field every other play, and now the Ravens and Browns are breathing down their neck.  A couple weeks ago, the Bengals were considered one of the League's best, now they look ready to collapse.  Indianapolis.

New Orleans +2.5 at Detroit: The Lions were supposed to have a high-powered offense, but it's been the defense that was won them four of their first six.  Last week they dismantled the Vikings and rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater.  Now along comes Drew Brees and the Saints. Stat-wise, New Orleans still seems to have a premier offense, they are #2 in yards per game, but Brees has tossed 6 INTs and the defense has sucked, so the Saints are a mediocre 2-3.  When New Orleans has the ball, you have a good offense going against a good defense.  When Detroit has the ball, you have a bad offense going against a bad defense.  The Saints road woes shouldn't be as evident here, as they are playing in a dome.  Tough game to call.  Drew Brees is not just going to sit in the pocket clueless like Bridgewater. . .but it looks like he won't have Jimmy Graham. . .and Matthew Stafford probably won't have Calvin Johnson.  Tough game to call.  I haven't picked the Lions all year.  Why start now?  New Orleans.

Kansas City +4 at San Diego: The Chargers have won five straight after getting nipped by one in the opener at Arizona, but they wobbled a little last week, barely escaping Oakland.  The Chiefs have the pass rush to fluster Phillip Rivers, who's been putting up MVP numbers so far, but 4 points isn't quite enough KC bait.  San Diego.

New York Giants +6.5 at Dallas: The Cowboys are back!  They beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and DeMarco Murray had another hundred yard game, he's on pace for a 2000 yard season. Tony Romo only has 2 INTs since the season-opening dud against the 49ers.  The Giants, after a 3 game win streak, got their ass handed to them last week in Philly.  Back to the terrible Giants of Weeks 1 + 2.  And they lost their best receiver, Victor Cruz.  This one looks like a BLOWOUT.  Except Tom Coughlin has taken worse Giants teams into Dallas and beat, uh, oh, yeah, worse Cowboy teams, so, yeah, the Giants are probably gonna get their ass kicked again this week.  Dallas.  PS: No coach in the NFL appears more down, depressed, discouraged and weary of it all after an ass-whipping than Coughlin.  And doesn't he make it sound here like Victor Cruz passed away? Classic sad sack Coughlin:

Houston +3.5 at Pittsburgh: If this game was played on paper, with all the *stars* both teams have, including the new Football Superman, J.J. Watt, this would be a Marquee Match-Up.  But, alas, they are playing this one on grass, so we got two .500 teams battling it out in a mediocrity Elimination Game, with the winner getting to pose like a playoff contender for one more week, and the loser getting exposed as a loser.  The Steelers have home field, the better QB, the higher ranked rushing offense, passing offense, rushing defense and passing defense.  But the Texans have the white head coach.  Houston.

College Football Week 8 Picks

5-3 vs the spread last week, 26-14 for the year.  In a week full of subpar performances in college football's most non-competitive conference, the Faded Glory 6, Texas took bottom honors with a stupefying 26-31 *moral victory* over arch-rival Oklahoma.  Despite out-gaining Oklahoma 278 to 29 in yards in the first half, and 482 to 232 for the game, Longhorns coach Charlie *Doing-It-The-Right-Way* Strong found a way to lose, and move his team into the top spot in the FG6:

1. Texas         2-4
2. Michigan     3-4
3. Tennessee  3-3
4. Florida       3-2
5. Miami, FL   4-3
6. Penn State 4-2

In the true losing-doesn't-matter spirit of the FG6, Coach Strong was proud of his squad's defeat, stating after the game "overall, I was pleased with the way we played!"  This was coach Strong's third *moral victory* of the season, following heroic losses to UCLA and Baylor, and made Strong the front-runner for FG6 Coach of the Year.   

Penn State, in danger of dropping out of contention for the FG6 championship, fell back into the race with a yawn-inducing 13-18 loss to Michigan, and knocked the Wolverines out of first place in the conference.  The pseudo-game featured all the hallmarks of classic FG6 football: incomprehensible coaching *strategy,* non-existent rushing attacks (the teams combined for 66 rushes for 118 yards) and gun-shy quarterbacks flinching in the pocket when not being sacked.  Michigan's punching bag QB Devin Gardner was knocked out of the game for two series, and with concussion poster boy Shane Morris not cleared to play, the Wolverines were forced to hand the ball to the infamous Russell Bellomy, who nearly threw interceptions on his only two attempts in the game, and kept his lifetime quarterback rating in the negative (Bellomy's career stats: 4 for 21 for 46 yards, with 4 interceptions and -0.7 rating).      

The How-Did-He-Win-Any-Games-In-The-SEC Coach of the Week: James Franklin, the former negro Pat Fitzgerald of the SEC.  Franklin, who is supposedly African-American but looks like a white boy with a spray-on tan, made two of the dumbest coaching decisions of the year in the Nittany Lions god-awful loss to Michigan.  First was the fake punt call in the third quarter.  With the ball on the Michigan's 37, Franklin decides to punt.  Of course any time a team decides to punt from that deep in the other team's territory, the other team is on the look-out for the fake, so that's bad enough.  But the fake punt was a sweep to a man-in-motion.  Uh, man-in-motion on a punt formation. . .uh, duh, that's a pretty obvious tip-off there ain't gonna be no punt. . .so no surprise when Michigan easily stuffs the fake fake for a two yard loss.  But Franklin topped that coaching blunder with a no-rhyme-or-reason time-out call late in the game.  Trailing 16-13 with 1:43 left and facing an impossible fourth-and-32 from their own three yard line, Franklin wasted Penn State's last time-out, apparently to avoid a delay of game penalty.  But the penalty would have been 18 inches!  And they took an intentional safety after the time out, anyway, to set-up an onside kick attempt on the free kick.  So what was the point of taking the time out???  Dumb.  This was the first game I've seen Franklin coach, and I wasn't impressed.  He got a genius coach hype for winning a few games at Vanderbilt, but, uh, he just got out-smarted by Brady Hoke.  Ouch. 

Kansas State +7.5 at Oklahoma: Oklahoma got pushed around by Texas.  That means the Sooners are soft. KSU doesn't have near the blue-chip recruits Oklahoma has.  But they play tough, and are well-coached by the one hundred year old Bill Snyder.  Kansas State. 

Texas A&M +12 at Alabama: Nick Saban didn't feel like apologizing for Bama's one point win over Arkansas last week:

Hey, Nicky, things ain't been quite right with the Tide ever since you started playing footsie with Lane Kiffen, which began before last year's Sugar Bowl, which maybe-not-so-conincidentally turned out to be an embarrassing loss. . .so, you know, maybe you ought to take the Lane Kiffen out of your eye, before you pull the pissed off motes out of the Tide fan base's eye, or. . .anyway, you know what I mean.  Texas A&M. 

Georgia -3.5 at Arkansas: The Razorbacks had Alabama beat, before head coach Bret Bielema mimicked his Wisconsin replacement Gary Anderson's dumb game one strategy against LSU and stopped running the ball and had a shitty QB start throwing passes.  Georgia's Clean Shirt defense played a helluva game last week, shutting out Missouri on the Tigers home turf, and holding them to less than 150 yards.  Georgia is now seeming in the driver's seat for the SEC East title, but this could be a tricky game, if Bielema would just remember he has a power run game.  I'm not convinced the Clean Shirts are up to confronting smash-mouth football.  Then again, Arkansas may go in the tank after tanking it against Alabama.  And yet, Georgia will probably have to play without Todd Gurley again, and so maybe this will be the game panicky 10 year back up QB Hutson Mason actually has to do something for the Dawgs to win, so. . .Arkansas.

Kentucky +10.5 at LSU: Somehow Kentucky is actually tied with Georgia in the loss column for the SEC East lead. . .this would seem a mere technicality, due to the SEC's primitive scheduling formula, rather than any football prowess on the part of the Wildcats.  Here it is in the middle of October, and Kentucky still hasn't played a good football team.  Now they get LSU, and their merits are debatable, also.  But you would think Les Miles just needs to give the ball 25 times to Leonard Fournette and the Bayou Bengals should be able to cover.  LSU.

Notre Dame +12 at Florida State: Despite all the scandals, and despite Georgia sitting Todd Gurley for a similar autograph-for-pay scheme, the *Semen*oles will trot out Hymen Trophy winner Jameis Winston for this Big Game against the Fighting Irish.  Florida State's worship of football success is an embarrassment, but the folks in Tallahassee are too pigskin intoxicated to notice how shameless they have become.  The winner of this game will be an overwhelming favorite to claim a Playoff spot, as neither team has a particularly challenging schedule left.  Notre Dame getting 12, despite the Winston stink hanging over Tallahassee?  Florida State hasn't been that good against a very soft schedule. Notre Dame is slower, but a lot stronger and tougher. . .and better coached.  Brian Kelly will have the Irish smart and error-free for sixty minutes.  Florida State can't play sixty straight good minutes.  No way they can cover the 12.  No way.  Notre Dame.

Stanford -3.5 at Arizona State: A good match-up for the Sun Devils. Stanford's defense is tough against the run, but ASU don't the run ball, anyway.  ASU's defense sucks, but so does Stanford's offense.  Arizona State.

NFL Week 6 Picks

3-4 vs the spread last week, 17-19 for the season. Former Detroit head coach Psycho Jim Schwartz got to feel what it's like to be on the other side of Lions' football Sunday, watching/benefitting as his old team slowly, and in excruciating fashion, gave a game away.  Three missed field goals, dropped TD passes, star players limping off the field, then the game lost as the opposing kicker easily bombs through a long distance three pointer at the end.  Instead of that sinking, cursed feeling he felt at the end of so many games during his five year run in Detroit, Schwartz finally felt the favor of the football gods.  Schwartz, always angry and with a chip on his shoulder, gave his defensive players a fiery-but-self-pitying pre-game speech, no doubt reflecting his persecution mania, and painting the Detroit organization and Lions' fans as dishonorable and lowdown.  And his Bills players responded, battering Matthew Stafford for four quarters, and at game's end carrying the former Lion boss off the field on their shoulders (a move Schwartz requested way back in July's training camp, and reflecting how badly he's wanted to rub Detroit's nose in his firing).  As for new Detroit coach Jim Caldwell, Sunday was his baptism into Lion football.  He'd had a pretty good go for the first four weeks of the season, and probably thought he'd walked into a favorable situation in Detroit.  After Sunday's game, in which he saw how flustered Stafford could be by a strong pass rush, and how uncomfortable Stafford is without Calvin Johnson on the field, Caldwell may now begin to have a few nagging doubts.  I always thought Caldwell was the worst coach in NFL when he was at Indianapolis, and his decision with 36 seconds left in the game to try a 51 yard FG with a kicker who had badly missed two earlier and shorter field goals, only confirmed my opinion.  His kicker was sure to miss, and leave Buffalo only one pass away from field goal range.  Sure enough, the Lions kicker missed by a mile, cast-off Kyle Orton hit a twenty yard pass to Sammy Watkins, and Dan Carpenter nailed a 58 yard field goal to teach Jim Caldwell a lesson I am sure he will forget.  One lesson Caldwell will not forget, however, is how these losses snowball in Detroit.  Loss after loss after loss now loom ahead for the man who thought he came to Detroit to reach the mountaintop.

Drew Stanton finally caught up to Arizona Sunday, he was terrible against the Broncos, who sat on the run and forced Stanton to beat them in the air. . .he couldn't, he was a pathetic 11 for 26 for 118 yards, and with no help on the offensive side of the ball, the Cardinal's defense cracked, giving up nearly 500 yards to Peyton Manning.  

Indianapolis -2.5 at Houston: One of these teams will win the terrible AFC South, then get bounced early from the playoffs.  Which team will win the NFL's worst division?  It ain't gonna be the team quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Anybody else starting to think J.J. Watt is the Peyton Manning of defense?  C'mon, the hype over this guy is ridiculous.  He's a fine player, but, please, he's not a Reggie White or even a Bruce Smith.  He's not in their class as a run defender.  Indianapolis.

Jacksonville +6 at Tennessee: Ha.  They should move this game to London, only those interested in the novelty of American football could care about this Toilet Bowl game.  The teams are on a combined 9 game losing streak, and Tennessee somehow managed to blow a 25 point lead last week at home against the Browns.  And now they may have to start Charlie Whitehurst!  If Jake Locker can't go, Jacksonville may actually win this game.  Both teams are terrible on defense, while Tennessee is a little better on offense. Rookie Blake Bortles is starting for the Jags, and completing 67% of his passes, but he's mostly a nickel-and-dimer right now, anytime he tries to get the ball downfield, he's an INT risk, with six picks already in less than a hundred throws.  New coach Ken Whisenhunt may feel some early heat if the Titans somehow lose this game.  Tennessee.  

Detroit -2.5 at Minnesota: It's there for all to see.  Former Lion head coach Psycho Jim Schwartz knows Matthew Stafford better than anyone else, and he had his Buffalo Bills defense schemed perfectly last week. Schwartz and his Bills defenders were laughing at Stafford, who without Calvin Johnson to chuck it to, looked like Daunte Culpepper without Randy Moss.  Stafford panicked in the pocket without Johnson, his security blanket wide-out.  He took six sacks, made a ton of terrible pressured throws, couldn't move the Lions offense, and looked completely clueless as his team slowly blew an early 14-0 lead.  It can't be denied any longer, Stafford can't win without Johnson, and he'll never be anything but an average (at best) NFL qb.  He needs that 6'5" leaping freak athlete to grab his off-target throws.  Even without Johnson, Stafford has some decent receivers, Golden Tate, a couple of first round draft pick tight ends, but he can't get them the ball.  He won't have Johnson in this game, and the Lions have no chance.  NO CHANCE.  Stafford has never progressed beyond the throw-it-up-for-grabs-to-Calvin stage.  Teddy Bridgewater, in his second start, with a terrible collection of receivers, will probably look more polished than the veteran Stafford.  The Lions have NO CHANCE to win this game. Their defense will keep them in it early, then grow dejected watching their sputtering offense, and then break down in the second half.  Bet the house on the Vikings.  Minnesota.

New England -3 at Buffalo: Tom Brady came back from the dead Sunday night, leading the Pats to a blow-out win over the Bengals.  He'll die again, this Sunday.  The Bills defense is for real.  They will shut down the New England run game, and then wreck Tom Brady like they wrecked Matty Stafford.  Hell, they may wreck him worse than they wrecked Stafford.  Brady is old and gun shy, and the Bills may crumple him up worse than the Chiefs did.  The only reason we won't be seeing Jimmy Garoppolo again this week is because the Bills offense is so bad, New England will be within 10 points most of the game.  After this game, the *experts* will realize the Bills are now the team to beat in the AFC East.  Buffalo.

Pittsburgh +2 at Cleveland: Nobody plays crazier, wilder games than the Browns.  3 points is the biggest margin in any of their games this year.  3 points! The Browns are 2-2, and could just as easily be 4-0 or 0-4.  They are the NFL's perfect team in its never-ending quest for parity.  If Cleveland can find a way to win this game, they got Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa coming up. . .look out, the Brownies could be a contender in the AFC North. . .and remember, they get the most dangerous receiver in the NFL, Josh Gordon, back for the last six games.  So this is actually a Big Game for the Browns.  The Steelers barely showed up against Jacksonville last week, only doing the bare minimum in a lackluster 17-9 win.  The Steelers should be better than what they are showing.  They got their run game back with Le'Veon Bell, Roethlisberger is still a decent QB, and, until Gordon comes back, they got the best receiver in the league, Antonio Brown. . .and they're still a Top 10 total defense team. . .so why do they look so mediocre?  We may be seeing the David Shaw syndrome here.  A negro boy wonder takes over a successful program built by a white, wins big in the early years while the white man's stamp is still on the team, but when the white man's legacy runs out, the negro caretaker is left scratching his head over a squad that sinks to mediocrity.  Cleveland.

Green Bay -3 at Miami: The Packers have the look of a team ready to start a roll. . .they crushed division rivals Chicago and Minnesota in their last two games, but. . .their run defense is horrible, and Miami averages 5 yards per carry, so. . .who knows?  The only known known is Aaron Rodgers is a lot better QB than Ryan Tannehill, but. . .Tannehill's wife is a lot hotter than Aaron Rodger's girlfriend.  Hey, Rodgers, what do you think about the other team's QB having a better-looking piece of ass?

Yup.  That's what I thought. Could be the *intangible* that gives the edge to the Dolphins.  Miami. 

Chicago +3 at Atlanta: The Flag Football Super Bowl!  Jay Cutler.  Matt Ryan.  Alshon Jeffery.  Brandon Marshall.  Julio Jones.  Roddy White.  And two defenses that think it's illegal to tackle.  Ha. These are the best 2-3 teams in football.  The Bears have a brutal opening schedule, six of their first nine games are on the road.  But they've actually played better on the road. They'd be 3-0 as visitors had they not blown last week's game at Carolina.  The Falcons have been far better at home, so this looks like the week the Bears go into the crapper on the road.  Atlanta.

Dallas +8.5 at Seattle: The Cowboys are the #2 rush offense and the Seahawks are the #1 rush defense.  The Seahawks should be able to slow down DeMarco Murray, and Tony Romo is due for one of his patented shitty games.  I just can't see Dallas at 5-1, with a road victory over the Super Bowl champs.  Jerry Jones would be I-told-you-soing from now until the Cowboys playoff game loss.  Seattle.

College Football Week 7 Picks

6-3 vs the spread last week, 21-11 for the year.  Worst pick of the week: Oregon over Arizona.  I vastly over-rated the Ducks, based on their win over Michigan State.  I discounted the flaws that Washington State exposed in their game a couple weeks ago.  And I vastly under-rated RichRod and Arizona. The Pac-12 is now wide open, and in danger of losing their Playoff spot to Michigan State.  Arizona is the only unbeaten in the Pac-12, but as much as I'd love to see RichRod spread his way into the Playoffs, I don't see how he can hide that defense for seven more games.  The Wildcats are going to stumble a couple times.  Best pick of the week: Notre Dame over Stanford.  I said: Stanford has the best defense in college football. . .but their offense sucks.  Notre Dame can win this game if they can find a way to scrape together 17 points.  Final Score: 17-14.  Pick I wish I had back: Alabama over Mississippi.  I said: Tough game to call, Mississippi's roster is dotted with NFL talent, but their quarterback gives up the ball too much.  Alabama.  Of course, Bo Wallace didn't turn the ball over once, and led a nice 4th quarter come back for the Rebels.  Good for Mississippi. . .and good for Mississippi State also, the SEC has some new blood at the top.  It appears the Les Miles/Nick Saban SEC era may be ending. . .for sure in LSU.  It's interesting to me how these programs suddenly fade. LSU is still a recruiting powerhouse, but their defense, which used to be so intimidating, now gets run all over by good teams.  They still have bluechip recruits, but why can't they stop the run, anymore?  What happened?  Oklahoma's loss gives Baylor the Big 12's Playoff spot.  I'd now predict the Playoffs like this:

#1 Florida State vs #4 Michigan State
#2 Baylor vs #3 Georgia  

I'm still sticking with my preseason pick of Georgia over Auburn in the SEC title game, even though the Dawgs Clean Shirt defense makes me nervous as a cat.

Week 7 features a card full of SEC heavyweight battles:

Georgia -3 at Missouri: This should be the SEC East title game. . .should be, unless Florida suddenly finds an offense.  Anyway, Georgia is always a risky pick, with their anorexia nervosa defense, but they have Todd Gurley, Player of the Year, going against a Missouri run defense that couldn't stop mediocre tailbacks from Toledo, Indiana or South Carolina.  Georgia should run through Missouri, though with that thin defense, they probably won't pull away until late in the game.  Georgia.

Auburn -3 at Mississippi State: They got LSU two weeks ago, Texas A&M last week, can Mississippi State make it three huge SEC wins in a row?  This is definitely the toughest of the three, because LSU and A&M couldn't challenge Mississippi State's run defense the way Auburn can.  Auburn didn't play well in their only road game of the year, and would have lost had Kansas State not missed three field goals and turned the ball over three times. . .now they go into Starkville, MS and face a team that thinks it's a world beater.  Should be a helluva game, and I'll roll my Bulldog money over one more time. Mississippi State.   

Texas Christian +10 at Baylor: TCU never had a chance in the old BCS system, and now here they are, one win over Baylor away from being in the driver's seat for the Big 12's Playoff spot.  Baylor sputtered offensively against Texas, but their defense prevented them from being in any danger of losing.  That was Baylor's third straight road game, I'm betting being back at home for this one will help get their aerial attack back on track.  Baylor.     

Oregon -3.5 at UCLA: Two weeks ago this looked like the showdown game for the Pac-12's spot in the Playoffs, but last week both teams fell flat on their faces, with their quarterbacks getting sacked a combined 14 times.  UCLA has been disappointing all season, struggling against mediocre competition.  This could be the week they fall completely apart, and get their ass beat by 3+ touchdowns.  Whichever team's QB can play the whole game will be the winner.  Oregon.    

Alabama -9.5 at Arkansas: Alabama fell apart late against Mississippi, now they have to play on the road again against a team they may take a little too lightly.  Arkansas has had two weeks to prepare for this game after their tough OT loss to Texas A&M.  The Razorbacks have the best run offense in the SEC.  Last year the Tide won this game 52-0.  This year's game will be a good indicator if Nick Saban's Alabama team is growing soft, and about to join LSU on the SEC over-the-hill gang.  Arkansas.   

LSU -2.5 at Florida: The SEC Has Been Bowl. . .but if Florida can somehow find an offense to win this game, and LSU has the shitty defense they need to find it, then the Gators, on paper, at least, are still in the hunt for the SEC East title. . .until they clobbered in three weeks by Georgia.  LSU looked like a lightweight against Auburn last week and their QB situation is a mess.  Both teams QB situations are a mess.  How can two big name schools not find a decent QB?  This could be a repeat of last week's Florida 10-9 snoozer over Tennessee.  LSU.

Mississippi +3 at Texas A&M: Mississippi is in a tough spot, having to go on the road and play a good team after that emotional high last week, winning at home against Alabama.  Hard not to predict a let down here.  Texas A&M. 

USC -3 at Arizona: Arizona is 5-0 and ranked 10th in the Nation, USC is 3-2, unranked. . .and yet Arizona is a HOME UNDERDOG!?!?  I know Arizona came out of nowhere last week, with their win over Oregon, and I just said I figured they'd lose a couple games because of their shabby defense, but this ain't one of them.  Man, talk about no respect.  USC ain't that good, and they just lost at home on one of the worst defended Hail Marys I ever seen.  I figure Arizona could be in trouble at UCLA or Washington State or Utah, maybe even at home against Arizona State. . .but not this game. Arizona.