NFL Week 13 Picks

5-3 vs the spread last week, 40-44-2 for the season. . .

Chicago +7 at Detroit: Two weeks ago the Lions were 7-2 and had us suckers on the hook, like they do so often.  Then road losses to Arizona and New England,  good teams, no shame in losing. . .but the offense was shameful.  No TDs, and Matthew Stafford looking like a SEC QB. . .oh, uh, he is an SEC QB.  But anyway, here's a home game against a chump team, a game Detroit has to win to keep in the playoff race.  A pressure game against a team the Lions are supposed to beat, but a game the Same Old Lions have always found a way to lose, like last year's home games to chump Tampa and the chump Giants.  The Lions will have the Turkey Day crowd behind them. . .as long as they start fast.  But struggle early, fall behind, and then the boo birds will be all over Stafford's stray passes.  This is the first real game of the Jim Caldwell era. . .win, and he's already ahead of Jim Schwartz. . .lose, and he falls right into line behind Schwartz, Marinelli and all the rest.  And if Stafford has another shitty game, the debate over his future in Detroit will begin.  Calvin Johnson hasn't done a thing for three weeks, except limp to the sidelines every other play, he looks like he's seen his best days.  As for the Bears, they've won two in a row over lightweights. . .and there's no love lost between these two teams.  The Bears will come to play.  The way Stafford and the Lions offense has stunk up the field, there's no way any sane bettor would pick them to cover 7.  Chicago.

Philadelphia +3 at Dallas: First place in the NFC East on the line.  Neither team's  defense has been any good in recent weeks.  Expect a lot of points.  Mark Sanchez will make more dumb plays than Tony Romo.  Dallas.

Seattle EVEN at San Francisco: Seattle hadn't beaten a good team since September, then last week they get a win over Arizona. . .but they beat Drew Stanton, not Carson Palmer.  San Francisco's limped by shitty teams the last three weeks.  Neither of these teams scares anybody like they used to.  They play each other twice in the next three weeks.  My guess is one of them will be knocked out of the playoff chase by then.  The 49ers offense is rotten, and Colin Halfernigger actually makes Russell Wilson look like a Pro Bowler.  The 49ers will be out in three weeks, and the *where will Jim Harbaugh be coaching in 2015* speculation will kick into high gear.  Seattle.

Cleveland +2.5 at Buffalo: The Battle for Lake Erie.  Pothead Josh Gordon didn't miss a beat, picking up over 100 yards in his first game back from his weed suspension, and Isaiah Crowell did all right in his debut as the feature back, and the Browns stole one late from the Falcons.  But I don't think Brian Hoyer will be able to handle the Bills defense, and the Bills sneak back into the Wild Card race with an ugly home win.  Buffalo.

San Diego +5.5 at Baltimore: Two 7-4 teams hanging onto their playoff lives.  The Chargers got a huge lift with the return of Ryan Matthews last week, they hadn't run the ball without him, but they still needed a last minute goal line INT to squeak past the Rams.  Baltimore should be able to run on the Chargers.  Hell, they should be able to run over the Chargers.  Baltimore.

Arizona -2.5 at Atlanta: The Cardinals scored touchdowns on their first two drives with Drew Stanton. . .since then, one field goal.  Still, I have a hard time seeing Atlanta winning this game.  The Cardinals don't beat themselves, while Atlanta leaves no stone unturned in finding new ways to lose. 17 points ought to be more than enough for the Falcons to win, but the Atlanta secondary will probably lose John Brown once or twice, the Cardinals defense will force a couple turnovers, and Arizona will scrape 21 or 24 points together, and the Falcons will fall to 4-8. . .and probably still remain *in the driver's seat* in the NFC Goodwill division, as New Orleans will almost certainly lose at Pittsburgh.  Arizona.

New England +3 at Green Bay: These were my preseason Super Bowl picks. . .they both started slow, but are now the hottest teams in the League.  Green Bay is the team I thought they'd be. . .for one reason: Aaron Rodgers.  The Packers run defense is awful, but Rodger always manages to put just enough points on the board to cover his defense's ass.  The Patriots looked feeble early in the season, and despite their hot streak, I still recall the whipping the Chiefs put on them.  But they handled the Lions d-line last week (although without Nick Fairley), so maybe their o-line troubles are solved.  Maybe. But I got a nagging feeling if the Pats run into the Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins or Ravens in the Playoffs, Brady gets bounced on his ass. Anyway, as for this game, I go with Rodgers.  The Patriot offense is strictly nickel-and-dime, while Rodgers has the weapons to bust the big plays.  Green Bay. 

Denver -2 at Kansas City: The Chiefs were rolling along, ready to overtake the Broncos in the AFC West, then they lost to the winless Raiders.  Oh, well, on any given Sunday. . .I mean, Thursday.  Anyway, I still think they are better than the Broncos.  I figure the Chief defense will do to Manning what they did earlier in the year to Brady: make him look like Johnny Unitas with the 1973 Chargers.  Kansas City.