NFL Week 11 Picks

2-4 vs the spread last week, 30-39-1 for the season. . .

Buffalo +5 at Miami: Both teams lost close games against playoff contenders last week, and now face-off in a Wild Card Elimination game.  The Bills defense has been great, they lead the league in sacks, defensive tackle Marcell Dareus has 10 already, and the Bills are #6 in total defense.  The problem for the Bills is the same old one: QB.  While Kyle Orton has been an upgrade over rag-arm EJ Manuel, he's still Kyle Orton, a journeyman back-up with career-long limitations, which are particularly evident in the so-called *red zone.*  Orton can't hit the tight throws to produce tds, and the Bills offense sputters and settles for field goals.  The Dolphins defense has actually been a little bit better than Buffalo's.  Miami was on a nice little roll until losing a last second game in Detroit. . .they get all the home field advantages of the short week, and should be able to cover the 5 in a low scoring Thursday Night snoozer. Miami.

Minnesota +3.5 at Chicago: The Vikings have slowly been getting better under new coach Mike Zimmer, particularly on defense.  As for the Bears, well, they've been rapidly disintegrating, losing their last two by college football scores.  For some reason, Marc Trestman got a lot of credit last year for taking a ten-win Bears team and turning it into an 8-8 squad.  His offense was flashy, and thus *sportscasters* anointed him a *genius.*  But I thought the guy was a faggot, and now apparently the Bears do, too.  Trestman claims there are no problems in the Bears locker room, but if he'd peek his head out of the stall where he and Jane Cutler play with themselves, maybe he'd notice the rest of the Bears have left.  The Bears are the favorites here, I suppose because the experts think the Viking offense under rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater is weak enough that even the Bears can handle it.  I don't think so.  Minnesota.

Seattle EVEN at Kansas City: Russell Wilson is having a terrible year, and yet *sportscasters* claim he's a great quarterback.  Is there something in his hand-offs to Marshawn Lynch that I just don't see?  Supposedly the Seahawks are back, but I'm not buying it, yet.  Their three game win streak has been against the Panthers, Raiders and Giants.  Hell, the Bears might have won those three games.  Now the Seahawks have to play a red-hot KC team in Arrowhead.  Let's see how the great Russell Wilson fares against the Chiefs maniac defense.  I say the Chiefs are the better team, and will win fairly comfortably.  Kansas City.

Philadelphia +5 at Green Bay: The Eagles are a tough team to get a handle on.  They got a nice 7-2 record, but they've beat 6 shitty teams, the only good team they've beat is Indianapolis, and who the Hell has Indianapolis beat?  What bothers me about the Eagles is they aren't running the ball like they did last year.  LeSean McCoy averaged 5.1 yards per carry last year, this year only 3.7.  Green Bay overwhelmed the Bears in their last game, but how much stock do you put in a beat-down of a broken team?  I actually think the Eagles are better off with Mark Sanchez instead of Nick Foles, but I don't think they're better off enough to beat Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau.  Green Bay.

Atlanta +2 at Carolina: The Falcons made the last quarterback they played cry.  I don't think Cam Newton will cry, but I don't think he'll do much on the field, either.  Carolina's on an ugly four game losing streak, and Newton has looked pretty clueless.  The red-hot Falcons have ridden a one game winning streak (that's red-hot in the NFC Goodwill division) to get back into contention for the division championship.  Despite getting out-gained by woeful Tampa Bay, the Falcons won by 10, and now they get to pick at the Panthers corpse.  This is the easist game the Falcons play in the next month.  They have to win this, or their season is over, even in the NFC Goodwill.  Atlanta.   

Cincinnati +7 at New Orleans: Andy Dalton had one of the all-time worst games against the Browns last week: 10 for 33, 86 yds, 3 ints.  Ha ha!  I don't think I've seen numbers like that since Bobby Douglass!  *Sportscasters* wonder if he can recover.  Ha.  Look, he had a terrible game.  But he didn't cry.  He'll be all right.  I don't know what's up with the Bengals. They are 2-3-1 in their last 6 games.  Sure, they've had injury problems, but so have the Cardinals, Lions, Eagles and they still find a way to win.  The Bengals were so bad against Cleveland, they are getting 7 points against a losing team.  The Saints are one of those losing teams everybody thinks is actually a good team. . .but they're really not.  They're just good eough to lose late in the game.  No way New Orleans is 7 better than the Bengals.  No way.  Cincinnati.  

Detroit +2 at Arizona: An unlikely battle for the top spot in the NFC.  This is defense against defense, maybe the two best defensive coordinators in the League. Teryl Austin has kept the Lions defense at #1 without Nick Fairley, Stephen Tulloch and numerous dbs, while Todd Bowles' Cardinals remain elite despite losing several of last year's starters to free agency and injury.  Now the Cardinals got to go without Carson Palmer, handing the ball to former Lions back-up Drew Stanton.  Stanton's a tough guy, took a helluva beating in his college years at Michigan State.  He's not a picture passer, but has surprising mobility and a knack for hitting the deep ball.  You'd think the Lions were set-up for a win here.  You can call the defenses even, but have to give the edge to the Lions on offense.  But the Lions have lost the last 7 times they've played in the desert, some of them classic Same Old Lions losses, including the infamous Bobby Ross two-point conversion game, the 24 point fourth quarter meltdown game, and last year's pass interference game.  I haven't picked the Lions all year.  How can I pick Drew Stanton to beat the Lions defense?  Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees couldn't.  Oh no, I've sipped from the paper cup of Lions Kool-Aid, I actually believe the Lions defense is for real. Gulp.  Detroit.

New England +2.5 at Indianapolis: I really don't believe either of these teams are as good as their record.  Despite all the points and the ass-kicking of Denver, I see a New England offense with a ton of limitations.  Sooner or later they are gonna run into another team like the Chiefs, a team with a defense that can take advantage of the Patriots weaknesses.  But the Colts ain't that team.  New England.