NFL Week 10 Picks

3-3 vs the spread last week, 28-35-1 for the season.

Kansas City -1.5 at Buffalo: Two sack-happy teams in the running for the playoffs.  The difference here is the Chiefs have a healthy Jamaal Charles, while the Bills are without C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.  The coaching move of the season was Buffalo's Doug Marrone shit-canning rag-arm QB EJ Manuel and replacing him with the journeyman Kyle Orton.  Orton has the arm strengh to get the ball downfied, and since he's been under center, Bills first round draft pick Sammy Watkins has been a threat to score from anywhere on the field. . .as long as he remembers not to showboat.  Kansas City.

Miami +5 at Detroit: Two sack-happy teams in the running for the playoffs.  The Dolphins destroyed Phillip Rivers and the Chargers last week, while the Lions last two games were miracle one point come-back wins over NFC Goodwill division teams, so I'm a little surprised the Dophins are getting so many points. With road games against Arizona and New England in the next two weeks, the Lions have to win this one, or their current 6-2 record will turn into 6-5, accompanied by a chorus of Same Old Lions from all over the state of Michigan.  The good news for the Lions is they get Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush back.  The bad news, and the difference here, is the Lions are without Nick Fairley, which will make it more difficult for Donkey Kong Suh and Ziggy Ansah to contain a suddenly red-hot Ryan Tannehill.  Miami.

Dallas -7 vs Jacksonville in London: DeMarco Murray was held under a 100 yards by Arizona last week, no shame in that.  Against a soft Jax run defense, Murray should start piling up the yards, again.  It's not known at this point if the Cowboys are going to start creaky-backed Tony Romo.  They'd be better off going with Brandon Weeden and a conservative, run-the-shit-out-of-the-ball game plan.  The only thing the Jags defense is half-way decent at is pressuring the QB. . .a stiff Tony Romo runs the risk of being pressured into dumb Tony Romo turnovers because he's trying to protect his dinged-up back.  Denard Robinson has turned into a productive running back for Jacksonville, but rookie QB Blake Bartles has been a pick-six machine.  On paper, the Cowboys should win this game EZ, with or without Romo. . .but the game is being played in London, not on paper, and the Cowboys, who were once 6-1 and had butthead Jerry Jones preening like a horny peacock, are now 6-3 and starting to get nervous as a cat over Romo's bum back. . .anxiety is something Jason *8-8* Garrett and the Cowboys have never handled well.  Upset Special.  Jacksonville.  

San Francisco +4.5 at New Orleans: At 4-4, the Saints, the pride of the NFC Goodwill division, are probably the safest bet of any team to make the playoffs, as 7-9 ought to be good enough to be crowned *champion.*  And what's gotten into Mark Ingram, lately?  He actually looks like a running back.  But I think we'll see the old three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-bust Ingram against the 49ers, as stopping the run is something San Fran actually still does well.  With each Niners dud of a game, we hear more and more how Jim Harbaugh isn't cut out for the National Football League, he's too tough, too intense, too demanding for professional ball, where players get comfortable at a certain level, and become resistant to Harbaugh's never-ending *tweaks.*  Colin Halfernigger looks like one 49er who just can't keep up with Coach Harbaugh. . .he looks like a guy who actually believes he is a *star QB,* and not what he's supposed to be, an extension of his coach on the field.  Halfernigger thinks he's his own QB, he's playing his own game, and the results are terrible.  Halfernigger sucks.  The Halfernigger/Alex Smith gamble nows looks like just a short money payout for Harbaugh. . .and suddenly the Harbaugh-to-Michigan scenario don't seem quite the longshot it once was.  New Orleans.

Atlanta -1 at Tampa Bay: Both of these shitty teams are coached by a guy named Smith, so I guess this is The Smiths Toilet Bowl. On September 18, the Falcons beat the Bucs 56-14, were 2-1, with no indication the season was about to turn into a nightmare.  Five losses later head coach Mike Smith is on the hot seat, with the owner labeling their last loss, in which they blew a 21-0 halftime lead against Detroit, 'unacceptable.'  What would really be unacceptable is a loss to Tampa Bay, as they might actually be worse than the winless Raiders.  If Smith loses this game (and look at that line, only a one point favorite over a one-win team they beat by 42 a few weeks ago!), you can cue the sad walking away music. As for the Bucs, their new head coach Lovie Smith hasn't been able to do anything right, and now he's down to that last shopworn gimmick all loser football coaches turn to: the quarterback shuffle.  Now it's back to Josh McCown, as if Tampa's miserable season were poor Mike Glennon's fault.  Hell, Glennon's the only reason Tampa's even won one game, he was great in their win at Pittsburgh, which now, given the way the Steelers are playing, must be viewed as the biggest upset of the season.  But who do you pick in a match-up of the stoppable force vs the movable object?  Heads: Falcons.  Tails: Buccaneers.  It's tails. Tampa Bay.

Denver -11.5 at Oakland: Using the proven formula of whatever team which was supposed to be the League's best, and is coming off a loss, will now lose at least one more game (see Cincy and San Diego), then we can determine with almost absolute certainity the Raiders will win (probably not, but I'll take the 11.5).  Oakland.